Présentations Colloques

    Oral Presentation
    Session 5.01: Groundwater resources in a world facing climate change
    Kidmose Jacob
    Comparing the effects of climate change and mitigation measures on urban groundwater resources
    Future groundwater conditions are directly affected by changed quantity, spatial and temporal structure of precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration. The future climate is predicted to be both dryer and wetter depending on location but a common situation is that extremes will be larger and occur more often. The anthropogenic response, in terms of adapting to, for example extreme urban runoffs, can also in a more indirect way have an effect on groundwater conditions. **The impact on groundwater conditions from both direct and indirect effects are presented in a study from the City of Silkeborg, western Denmark. Climate change effects, representing the last decades of the 21st century, are simulated by a hydrological MIKE SHE model. The model encloses an urbanized area where adaptation strategies include diversion of rainwater from traditional urban storm water systems to new Local Forced Infiltration (LAR) systems (also termed Low-Impact Development or soakaways). LAR systems infiltrate surface water locally or in an end-off-pipe system, with larger common infiltration basins. The model calculates daily hydraulic head of the upper unconfined aquifer for the reference period (1990-2012) and based on this data, an extreme value analysis is performed to extract hydraulic heads for return periods of 50 and 100 years. The extreme values analysis is also performed for the future period and for a scenario where LAR is an integrated part of the urban rainwater management. With this methodology it is possible to analyse not only average future groundwater conditions but also extreme conditions important for vulnerable infrastructure.**The study illustrates the need for local analysis of the combined effects from both climate change but also the effects from different adaptation strategies. At the city of Silkeborg, the effect from adapting to climate changes with LAR solutions, clearly overrule the effects from increased precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration.**


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